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Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears are heading toward a breakup at the conclusion of the 2023 season.  As much as some people do not want to accept this, the writing appears to be on the wall.  The Bears currently hold the number one pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, courtesy of the Carolina Panthers.  That pick puts the Bears in place to select QB, Caleb Williams out of USC, who many, myself included, believe as a generational player at the QB position.  

Caleb Williams won the Heisman in 2022, which is awarded to the most outstanding player in college football.  Williams has played in 36 games, completing 67% of his passes throwing 92 TD, and passing for just under 10k yards to go along with 13 INT, while also running for 986 yards and 27 TD.  

The Chicago Bears drafted Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft, after making a trade with the New York Giants to move up 9 spots—from pick 20 to pick 11.  This trade involved the Bears giving up a 2021 5th round pick and a 2022 1st round pick, as well as a 2022 4th round pick.  Since being drafted, Justin Fields has played in 33 games, starting 31 of them.  He has a 6-25 record as a starter, throwing for 5,313 yards and 35 TD to go along with 27 INT completing 60% of his passes while also running for 1,800 yards and 11 TD.

The numbers on paper are very underwhelming for Fields.  While this is true, Justin Fields is not the reason the Bears are a bad football team.  The Bears defense is giving up 25.5 points per game, which is ranked 27th in the league.  Being bottom 27th in scoring defense is a recipe to lose a lot of football games.  Besides not getting any help from his defense, Justin Fields has not been put in a position to succeed on offense.  

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The Bears have shown this season that they will not tailor an offense to the skillset of Justin Fields, which is coaching malpractice with the talent and gifts that he has.  In 2022, Justin Fields had 11 rushing attempts per game and his rushing attempts are down to 8 per game in 2023.  The Bears are trying to make a dual threat playmaker into one dimensional statue pocket passing QB.  Justin Fields will not reach his full potential playing QB that way.  His rushing ability puts stress on the defense and needs to be an active element of the offense with designed runs.  Not just scrambles when a play breaks down.  

Ryan Poles, GM, also did Fields a disservice by hiring Matt Eberfluss as Head coach.  Fluss was the Defensive Coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts before becoming the Bears head coach in 2022.  Fluss currently has the worst win percentage of any Bears Head Coach in history with .222 and is 6-21 as a Head Coach.

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The talent and potential for Justin Fields is still there, I have not given up on him as a player.  What it comes down to is Ryan Poles did not draft Justin Fields and he has no loyalty to him.  Justin Fields has just not done enough through his 3 years in Chicago to warrant the Bears passing on Caleb Williams.  Williams simply is the golden ticket prospect that every GM prays for the chance to draft.

  I think the Bears end up with a 4-13 record at the end of the season, meaning the Bears would have won 7 games in the Ryan Poles era.  If that is the case and Poles runs it back with Justin Fields for year 4 and he flops, that is a fireable offense and I would expect him to be fired by President Kevin Warren. By drafting Caleb Williams, Ryan Poles gives himself 3 more years to build a competitive team without scrutiny.

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Though the breakup  seems inevitable to me, I think the feeling is mutual on both sides.  Justin Fields has to know, deep down, that the Bears are not putting him in the best position to succeed and to win football games.  Fields has had success at every level of football he has played and his short tenure with the Bears seems to be the outlier.  

The Bears have had a putrid history of QBs to put it nicely.  Since 1951, the Bears have had only 5 QBs make the Pro Bowl, and never once had a QB pass for 4k yards in a single season.  The Bears have been unable to develop a franchise QB since the 50s, leaving the city desperate for a QB savior.  Could Caleb Williams be the savior that Bear fans have been waiting for?  Truthfully, I think he is, and I believe you will see him in a Bears jersey in April. 

Photo by Adrian Curiel on Unsplash